Combining Evidence in Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks
Norman Fenton, Martin Neil · 2004
This paper is about helping people who make critical decisions improve the quality of their judgements. We provide a brief introduction to Bayesian Nets (BNs) and use an example in safety assessment. We show how BNs enable decision-makers to combine different types of evidence (including subjective judgements) to provide quantitative, auditable arguments. By using state-ofthe-art BN technology it is now easy for decision-makers to develop solutions that scale up to the most complex types of problems. Consider the following problem: You are in charge of a critical system, such as a transport system or a nuclear installation. The system is made up of many components that you buy as black boxes from different suppliers. When you need a new type of component you invite a dozen suppliers to tender. If you are lucky you might be able to