Trust and Security in Critical Digital Infrastructures: A Conditional Analysis of Acceptance and Intention to Change in Electronic Voting Systems
Célio Castro Wermelinger, Ari Melo Mariano, João Mello da Silva · IEEE Access · 2026
Electronic voting systems have become central components of contemporary democratic infrastructures, aiming to increase operational efficiency, reduce fraud, and enhance electoral integrity. However, their legitimacy depends not only on technical robustness but also on citizens’ perceptions of security, transparency, and institutional trust, particularly in polarized sociopolitical environments. The objective of this study is to analyze the heterogeneity of the mechanisms underlying both the acceptance and the contestation of electronic voting machines, examining how trust, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and social influence vary as a function of individual characteristics. An exploratory and descriptive study with a quantitative approach was conducted using structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), based on a sample of 1,851 Brazilian voters familiar with electronic voting. A hierarchical second-order construct was specified to model Overall Trust by integrating Perceived Security and Trust in Technology. The model exhibited high explanatory power for Behavioral Intention (R² = 0.848) and moderate explanatory power for Intention to Change (R² = 0.588). Overall Trust emerged as the dominant predictor, positively influencing behavioral intention and strongly and negatively influencing intention to change. Performance Expectancy and Social Influence positively affected Behavioral Intention, whereas Effort Expectancy was not significant. For Intention to Change, Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy showed positive but smaller effects, while Social Influence was not significant. Moderation analyses revealed significant effects of Gender, Age, Education Level, and Political Orientation, indicating heterogeneous behavioral patterns across population segments. These findings indicate that acceptance and contestation of electronic voting systems are governed by dynamic sociotechnical interactions between perceived technical safeguards, institutional trust, and individual characteristics, with implications for electoral governance and trust-oriented public policies.