A SimOpt approach to balance consistency of historical OD matrices and accuracy of traffic counts
Marco Boresta, Giovanni Felici, Pierfrancesco Leonardi, Anna Laura Pala, Davide Donato Russo, Alessio Salvatore, Giuseppe Stecca, Vincenza Torrisi · Transportation research procedia · 2026
Origin-Destination (OD) matrix calibration plays a crucial role in transport modeling, as it ensures that travel demand estimates are consistent with historical data and accurately reflect empirical observations. Therefore, we propose a refined Simulation-Optimization approach that improves the accuracy of transport simulation assignments with respect to observed traffic flows, while preserving the consistency of historical demand patterns. A key aspect of the calibration process is determining the parameter α, which governs the trade-of between the historical OD matrix and the observed traffic count data. Our proposed approach identifies the value of α that better maintains both the integrity of historical OD matrices and the accuracy of simulated traffic flows, by employing a bi-objective algorithm integrated with a macrosimulation model developed with PTV Visum tool. We also introduce a novel evaluation method for the calibration procedure that considers the variation of the α value and jointly considers cosine similarity and GEH statistics. We tested our method on a real-world case study focused on the Catania (Italy) transport network, demonstrating its robustness, scalability, and practical applicability. Notably, numerical results indicate that the optimal value of α does not necessarily correspond to the intuitive midpoint (α = 0.5), but instead reflects a more complex balance between historical consistency and empirical accuracy.