MLEF: a novel meta-learning framework with feature selection for enhanced athlete fatigue risk prediction
Dejin Wang, Yuxi Peng, Junhui Zhu, Qihao Liu, Taiquan Wang, Shaoxue Wu, Jueliang Tian, Yi Yang, Fang Tan · Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences · 2026
Abstract Athlete fatigue and overtraining are critical factors affecting performance and health, yet traditional evaluation methods relying on subjective judgment or single-indicator monitoring lack systematic and real-time capability. This study proposes a novel Meta-Learning Ensemble Framework (MLEF) integrating multidimensional physiological monitoring for intelligent fatigue risk prediction. The MLEF architecture consists of three progressive layers: a Feature Selection Layer using ANOVA F-statistic based univariate selection to identify the top 12 features from 15 original variables, a Base Learner Layer training four heterogeneous logistic regression classifiers with different regularization configurations, and a Meta-Learning Layer integrating predictions through weighted voting and stacking ensemble strategies. We constructed experiments on the AFR-1000 dataset containing 1000 athletes with balanced class distribution (51:49 normal/fatigue), split 8:2 into training and testing sets with stratified sampling. On the independent test set, MLEF achieved 99.00% accuracy, 98.98% F1-score, and 99.89% ROC-AUC, significantly outperforming traditional machine learning methods (Logistic Regression 98.50%, SVM 92.50%, XGBoost 88.00%) and deep learning models (Attention Network 97.50%, DNN 97.50%). Ablation experiments demonstrated that ANOVA F-statistic based feature selection maintained baseline performance while reducing dimensionality, and progressive ensemble integration raised F1-score from 98.46% to 98.98%. SHAP interpretability analysis identified HRV (mean |SHAP $$|=3.95$$ | = 3.95 ), HeartRate_Recovery (2.89), and Cortisol_Level (2.46) as top predictors, with HRV-Lactate interaction revealing synergistic amplification of fatigue risk. The MLEF model provides a practical AI tool for training monitoring with high accuracy and interpretability, offering scientific guidance for personalized training and recovery planning.