Blockchain‐Based Model to Predict Agile Software Estimation Using Machine Learning Techniques
Mohammad Ayub Latif, Muhammad Khalid Khan, Maaz Bin Ahmad, Toqeer Mahmood, Muhammad Tariq Mahmood, Yohan Joo · IET Software · 2025
The importance of software estimation is utmost, as it is one of the most crucial activities for software project management. Although numerous software estimation techniques exist, the accuracy achieved by these techniques is questionable. This work studies the existing software estimation techniques for Agile software development (ASD), identifies the gap, and proposes a decentralized framework for estimation of ASD using machine‐learning (ML) algorithms, which utilize the blockchain technology. The estimation model uses nearest neighbors with four ML techniques for ASD. Using an available ASD dataset, after the augmentation on the dataset, the proposed model emits results for the completion time prediction of software. Use of another popular dataset for ASD predicts the software effort using the same proposed model. The crux of the proposed model is that it simulates blockchain technology to predict the completion time and the effort of a software using ML algorithms. This type of estimation model, using ML, making use of blockchain technology, does not exist in the literature, and this is the core novelty of this proposed model. The final prediction of the software effort integrates another technique for improving the calculated estimation, the standard deviation technique proposed by the authors previously. This model helped lessening the overall mean magnitude of relative error (MMRE) of the original model from 6.82% to 1.73% for the augmented dataset of 126 projects. All four ML techniques used for the proposed model give a better p ‐value than the original model using statistical testing through the Wilcoxon test. The average of the MMRE for effort estimation of all four techniques is below 25% on a dataset of 136 projects. The application of the standard deviation technique further helps in lessening the MMRE of the proposed model at 70%, 80%, and 90% confidence levels. The work will give insight to researchers and experts and open the doors for new research in this area.