Integrating Machine Learning and Fractional-Order Dynamics for Enhanced Psoriasis Prediction and Clinical Decision Support
David Amilo, Khadijeh Sadri, Evren Hınçal, Mohamed Hafez · AppliedMath · 2025
This study introduces a novel hybrid framework that integrates machine learning (ML) with fractional-order differential equations (FDE) to enhance the prediction and clinical management of psoriasis, leveraging real-world data from the UCI Dermatology Dataset. By optimizing ML models, particularly the Voting Ensemble, to inform FDE parameters, and developing a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) for real-time diagnostics, the approach bridges computational efficiency with physiological realism, capturing memory-dependent disease progression beyond traditional integer-order models. Key findings reveal that the Voting Ensemble achieves a precision of 0.986 ± 0.007 and an AUC of 0.992 ± 0.005. At the same time, the fractional-order model, with an optimized order of 0.6781 and a mean square error (MSE) of 0.0031, accurately simulates disease trajectories, closely aligning with empirical trends for features such as Age and SawToothRete. The GUI effectively translates these insights into clinical tools, demonstrating probabilities ranging from 0% to 100% based on input features, supporting early detection and personalized planning. The framework’s robustness and potential for broader application to chronic conditions highlight its significance in advancing healthcare.