Drake QIR: Probabilistic Abiogenesis and Instrumental Detectability
Adam Chakchaev · HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) · 2025
We extend the Drake QIR framework by replacing the scalar probability of abiogenesispbio with a probabilistic distribution, and by introducing an instrumental detectabilityfactor Pinstr. This extension connects causal expectations for the occurrence of technologicalcivilizations to actual forecasts that can be tested by current and future SETI programs. Weapply the formalism to both the Virgo Cluster and the Milky Way, and present scenarios,sensitivities, and observational recommendations.