MATHEMATICAL TOOLS FOR STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERING RECRUITMENT
Nikolay Chekalkin, Nadezhda Sokolaeva, Viktoriya Gelmiyarova, Tat'yana Morozova · Moscow Economic Journal · 2025
The article presents a statistical and analytical overview of the prospects for providing enterprises with engineering personnel based on data on school graduates and USE results. The purpose of the study is to analyze the overall potential for increasing the volume of training of engineering specialists, as well as to identify trends at the stage of general education training of applicants in key disciplines necessary for engineering education. The paper examines patterns and trends based on sample data from 9th and 11th grade graduates for the period from 2017 to 2025. The tasks include the processing of sample populations, the analysis of the choice of subjects of the Unified State Exam, the distribution of applicants by discipline in the context of the potential replenishment of engineering personnel for 2019-2024, as well as overcoming the minimum threshold points for admission to universities. The research uses methods of data preparation and purification, processing of sample populations with the construction of variation series, determination of sample fractions, the method of histograms for visualization, correlation and regression analysis. The analysis of the results of the Unified State Exam was carried out taking into account the overcoming/non-overcoming of the minimum threshold set by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for subordinate universities. According to the results of the analysis, downward trends have been identified in the prospect of replenishing engineering personnel associated with a decrease in the quality of school education. A pattern has been established for a decrease in the number of exam takers in physics with a simultaneous but disproportionate increase in a similar indicator in computer science in terms of overcoming the minimum threshold. The absolute minimum of the Unified State Exam results in many subjects critical for engineering education in 2023 has been revealed. An increase in the number of budget places in engineering fields does not lead to an increase in their popularity. Such phenomena as shortages, especially in 2023, when problems with admission arose even in a number of metropolitan universities, have become commonplace against the background of a decrease in the quality of applicants' training.