Multiple Correlation Analysis of Operational Safety of Long-Distance Water Diversion Project Based on Copula Bayesian Network
Pengyuan Li, Fudong Dong, Guibin Lv, Yuansen Wang, Yongguo Sheng, Feng Cheng, Bo Wang · Water · 2025
Based on the Copula theory, a multiple correlation analysis model for the operation safety risks of long-distance water diversion projects was established. Combined with Bayesian network reasoning, a polynomial regression analysis, and other techniques, a dynamic analysis method for the operation safety of long-distance water diversion projects based on a Copula Bayesian network model was proposed, providing decision support for the operation safety risk management of long-distance water diversion projects. We took the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example to verify the validity and practicability of the model. The results show that this method can capture the nonlinear mapping relationship when the probability of risk occurrence changes dynamically on the basis of considering the risk correlation, and realize the dynamic analysis of risk correlation.