DeFine: Decision-Making with Analogical Reasoning over Factor Profiles
Yebowen Hu, Xiaoyang Wang, Wenlin Yao, Yiming Lu, Daoan Zhang, Hassan Foroosh, Dong Yu, Fei Liu · 2025
LLMs are ideal for decision-making thanks to their ability to reason over long contexts.However, challenges arise when processing speech transcripts that describe complex scenarios, as they are verbose and include repetition, hedging, and vagueness.E.g., during a company's earnings call, an executive might project a positive revenue outlook to reassure investors, despite uncertainty regarding future earnings.It is crucial for LLMs to incorporate this uncertainty systematically when making decisions.In this paper, we introduce DEFINE, a modular framework that constructs probabilistic factor profiles from complex scenarios.It then integrates these profiles with analogical reasoning, leveraging insights from similar past experiences to guide LLMs in making critical decisions in new situations.Our framework separates the tasks of quantifying uncertainty and incorporating it into LLM decision-making.This approach is particularly useful in areas such as consulting and financial deliberation, where making decisions under uncertainty is vital. Analogous Example Analogous Example Analogous ExampleAnalogous Example Simona Jankowski (Vice President, Investor Relations): … During this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures.You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our CFO commentary, … With that, let me turn the call over to Colette.Colette Kress (Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer): Thanks, Simona.Q1 was another record quarter.Revenue of $26 billion was up 18% sequentially and up 262% year on year and well above our outlook of $24 billion.Starting with Data Center.Data Center revenue of $22.6 billion was a record, up 23% sequentially and up 427% year on year, driven by continued strong demand for the NVIDIA Hopper GPU computing platform… "instance_id": "NVDA_2024-05-22", "factor profile": { "economic_health": { "summary": "NVIDIA reported a record quarter with significant revenue growth, particularly in the Data Center segment, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure.The company expects continued growth across all market platforms in the next quarter, indicating a positive economic environment for NVIDIA's operations.", "outcomes": { "positive-outlook": "very likely", "unknown-or-uncertain": "very unlikely" } }, "natural_disasters_and_other_black_swan_events": { "summary": "The transcript does not mention any natural disasters or black swan events affecting NVIDIA's operations or market conditions.", "outcomes": { "major_impact": "very unlikely", "unknown-or-uncertain": "likely" } …