Large-Scale Nightmare or Precision Tool for Covert Operations? An Assessment of the Risks of Genetic Technology in the Near Future
Tony Ingesson, Subhayan Chattopadhyay, David Gisselsson · International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence · 2025
Advances in genetic technology could lead to new threats, such as engineered pathogens, or plots to frame individuals by planting synthesized deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) at a crime scene. Uncontrollable weaponized viruses and ethnic bioweapons have also been mentioned in public discourse. Employing a multidisciplinary approach, four scenarios are developed and assessed in terms of sociotechnical plausibility and technical feasibility. By combining scenario methodology with structured analytic techniques, strategic and operational scenarios are developed to discuss plausibility and feasibility. The conclusion is that the worst-case scenarios are implausible even with new technologies, and that more focus should instead be on disinformation or assassinations.