A Forecasting Method Based on a Dynamical Approach and Time Series Data for Vehicle Service Parts Demand
Vinh Long Phan, Makoto Taniguchi, Hidenori Yabushita · 2025
In the automotive industry, the supply of service parts—such as bumpers, batteries, and aero parts—is required even after the end of vehicle production, as customers need them for maintenance and repairs. To earn customer confidence, manufacturers must ensure timely availability of these parts while managing inventory efficiently. An excess of inventory can increase warehousing costs, while stock shortages can lead to supply delays. Accurate demand forecasting is essential to balance these factors, considering the changing demand characteristics over time, such as long-term trends, seasonal fluctuations, and irregular variations. This paper introduces a novel method for time series forecasting that employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to analyze service part demand. EEMD decomposes historical order data into multiple modes, and DMD is used to predict transitions within these modes. The proposed method demonstrated an approximately 30% reduction in forecasting error compared to comparative methods, showcasing its effectiveness in accurately predicting service parts demand across various patterns.