Data-driven ERP-BPMS model for public utilities’ crisis resilience
Yuri Chernenko, Alexander Semko, Ruslan Веrezenskyi · Management of Development of Complex Systems · 2025
Public utility enterprises (PUEs) increasingly operate in volatile environments characterized by geopolitical tensions, infrastructure disruptions, and workforce mobilization, all threatening essential services. This study proposes a hybrid risk management model integrating Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) with heuristic decision-making and predictive analytics. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyzed key performance indicators (KPIs) – including response times, resource utilization, and continuity – extracted from BOS CIS at Mastergaz (a Ukrainian utility). Pre- and post-integration comparisons showed a 50% reduction in response times, 20% lower logistical costs, and continuity above 90%. A qualitative thematic analysis of 15 interviews confirmed that improved transparency, preparedness, and decentralized decision-making aligned with these KPI gains. Scenario-based simulations (including Monte Carlo) validated the model under infrastructure loss and workforce shortages. These integrated findings support the hypothesis that an ERP-BPMS integrated model grounded in both quantitative and qualitative metrics enhances agility, cost-effectiveness, and resilience. This framework offers utility leaders a data-driven, adaptable tool for proactive crisis management across diverse scenarios.