A Causal Structure Analysis of the December 3 Martial Law Incident through Systems Archetypes
Youngmin Oh · Korean System Dynamics Review · 2025
This study analyzes the December 3, 2024 martial law incident declared by President Yoon Suk-yeol through the analytical lens of Peter Senge's System Archetypes theory. Eight archetypes are applied to this case: escalation, success to the successful, shifting the burden to the intervenor, balancing process with delay, fixes that fail, shifting the burden, erosion of goals, and limits to growth. Additionally, the president's confirmation bias is examined using causal loop diagrams to highlight its systemic impact.The analysis reveals that President Yoon failed to recognize the opposition party as a legitimate governing partner and attempted to impose authoritarian control over the National Assembly. He responded to policy failures by deflecting responsibility onto external actors or branding them as anti-state forces. His unilateral approach to policy implementation eroded public trust, while major policy agendas remained rhetorical and lacked substantive follow-through. The administration's legitimacy further deteriorated due to repeated policy failures, the influence of unofficial power figures, and growing public dissatisfaction with First Lady Kim Keon-hee. Most significantly, confirmation bias severely undermined democratic processes by excluding dissenting perspectives. This study highlights the value of systems thinking as a diagnostic tool for institutional dysfunction and as a framework for restoring democratic balance.