A Method for Predicting the Ownership of Electric Vehicles Based on a Comprehensive Prediction Model
Yan Pan, Dinghao Luo, Wei Zhao, Qifang Chen, Ye Dong, Jiayi Yu · 2024
The rise in the number of electric-powered vehicles has a greater effect on the composition of the power system load. This paper initially presents the predictive methods for electric vehicle ownership, including the grey prediction model, Bass diffusion model and elastic coefficient prediction model. Subsequently, the different weights of the grey prediction model, Bass diffusion model and elastic coefficient prediction model are allocated by the entropy weight method, which can realize the comprehensive prediction of electric vehicle ownership. Finally, this paper proves the method has better accuracy compared with the single method. The final calculation of the representation of the variance proves that the comprehensive prediction method has better reliability.