A study on the forecasting of agricultural product price trends based on SARIMA
Danni Chen, Bixian Cheng, Ji Li, Qing Shen, Jun Liu · 2025
Agriculture has always been the foundation of national stability and people's well-being, especially food and oil agricultural products as an important part of people's daily diet, and its price fluctuations have a far-reaching impact on the social economy. This paper predicts the price fluctuation trend of grain and oil agricultural products based on the SARIMA model. By analyzing the monthly price data of agricultural products marketplaces throughout the year released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2018 to 2022, the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of the prices of agricultural products, such as rice and rapeseed, are summarized, and the price fluctuation trend of agricultural products is predicted using the characteristics as parameters. The results of the study show that the SARIMA model has high accuracy and good fitting quality in the prediction of agricultural product price volatility trends, and the assumption of residual normality is well satisfied. The model is of great significance in assisting the government to formulate agricultural policies and protect farmers' interests and market stability.