Formula 1 Race Winner Prediction Using Random Forest and SHAP Analysis
Eldad Haber, Elie Sawaya, Maroun Attieh, Aldo Tannous, Weam Ghazaly, Michel J. Owayjan · 2025
Predicting the outcomes of Formula 1 (F1) races presents a significant challenge due to the complex interplay of numerous factors, including driver skill, vehicle performance, team strategy, and unpredictable race-day conditions. This paper investigates the application of the Random Forest algorithm enhanced with SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis to forecast race winners while providing interpretability to the model's predictions. By leveraging extensive historical data encompassing driver metrics and race conditions, we aim to build a model that achieves high predictive accuracy and offers valuable insights into the most influential factors affecting race outcomes. Our approach demonstrates how integrating machine learning with explainable AI techniques can assist F1 teams in making data-driven decisions, ultimately optimizing their strategies in the highly competitive environment of professional racing.