DeepCensored: Deep-Learning Based Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Censored Data
Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter · 2024
Accurate time series forecasting is critical in various fields, including resource allocation and crime prevention. While traditional approaches often focus on continuous data, count data forecasting, especially with partially observed (censored) data, remains challenging. This paper introduces DeepCensored, a novel deep learning-based framework that combines the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm with deep neural networks to deliver robust probabilistic forecasts. DeepCensored naturally handles interval-censored event data, where exact event times are unknown but fall within a specific interval. Through extensive simulations and real-world crime data analysis, our method significantly outperforms traditional forecasting approaches, reducing the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 50% and better detection of emerging crime trends. These results highlight DeepCensored's potential to provide actionable insights for law enforcement and public safety by predicting crime intensity and enabling resource-efficient policing strategies.