Emerging and Disruptive Technologies
James Clyde Sperling · Oxford University Press eBooks · 2025
Abstract The emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) of the twenty-first century will narrow NATO’s technological advantage over its likely adversaries and may erode the credibility of the extended American deterrent. In this chapter, the concept of disruptive technologies frames the analysis of military EDTs and is extended to account for potential changes in the conduct of war. A brief overview of those EDTs shaping the future of warfare provides the empirical foundation for answering two questions. First: ‘what are the first-, second-, and third-order consequences of technology for the Alliance?’ Second: ‘what specific impacts will these technologies have on the conduct of warfare in the entangled war-fighting domains of land, sea, air, and space, and the enabling domains of cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum, particularly with respect to the offensive–defensive balance and nuclear deterrence?’ The conclusion questions whether the feared ‘algorithm gap’ of the 2030s will prove as illusory as the ‘missile gap’ of the late 1950s or if it is real and thus might leave NATO a relatively diminished military actor.