A Framework of Project Risk Simulation with Event Knowledge Graph
He Wen, Simaan AbouRizk, Yasser Mohamed, Rongbing Huang · 2024
Risk simulation is crucial for effective project management, yet conventional methods often fail to capture the complex interdependencies and interactions among risk events. This paper proposes a novel approach to project risk simulation by integrating event knowledge graphs, fuzzy logic techniques, and game theory principles. Event knowledge graphs provide a structured representation of project events and their relationships thereby facilitating the simulation of risk events and pathways; fuzzy logic enables the assessment of uncertain events; and game theory aids in identifying high-risk events and elucidating risk pathways. A methodology is outlined encompassing the construction of event repositories, establishment of event knowledge graphs, and simulation of project risks. Following, a case study of wind farm projects demonstrates the practical application of the proposed approach, highlighting its effectiveness in simulating and analyzing project risks.