Integrated inference based on two statistical patterns in young children: An examination focusing on relative probability of occurrence
Fuyumi Hayashi, Keito Nakamichi · The Japanese journal of psychology · 2025
This study examined whether young children integrate pre- and post- observed statistical patterns to infer two types of likelihoods. In Experiment 1 (N = 103, M = 68.47 months) and Experiment 2 (N = 51, M = 67.88 months), we presented 4- to 6-year-olds with two statistical patterns. The results showed that when the integrated probability was 50% vs 50%, participants inferred that the two likelihoods were equal. In contrast, when the integrated probability was 75% vs 25%, participants correctly inferred the height of each likelihood in only one of the three conditions and a certain number of participants incorrectly inferred that the likelihoods were equal. In addition, the older the age, the better the task performance. These results show that young children can infer that two likelihoods are equal based on the two statistical patterns. Furthermore, these results suggest that as children get older, they are able not only to infer that both are possible, but also to infer whether each of two likelihoods is high or low.