Probabilistic assessment of network hosting capacity
Athanasios-Rafail Lagos, Andreas Gatos, Nikos Hatziargyriou, Hannu Jaakko Johannes Laaksonen · IET conference proceedings. · 2025
The integration of a substantial quantity of distributed renewable energy sources (DRES) with minimum environmental impact, yet with immense uncertainty in the energy production, poses significant challenges to the distribution networks (DNs). Consequently, the evaluation and enhancement of the hosting capacity (HC) of the DNs have garnered considerable attention. This paper introduces a novel planning method for increasing the HC of a DN without necessitating expensive long-term infrastructure upgrades. A proper threshold for acceptable violations of the DN’s operating voltage limits is defined and a probabilistic method for assessing the probability of occurrence of such violations is formulated, based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. If the probability of violations falls below the specified threshold, approval for the integration of the examined RES is granted. This framework is a relaxation of the widely applied worst-case scenario planning methodologies for addressing uncertainties in DRES integration studies. Under this approach, the maximization of the hosting capacity is formulated as a stochastic optimization problem with chance constraints. Applying this methodology to a distribution network of Greece and comparing the outcomes with the existing methodology employed by the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO) reveals a significant increase in HC for a certain set of candidate buses for PV installation.