Complex system risk assessment model based on improved cloud DEMATEL-TAISM
Rongguang Zhang, Hongsheng Yan · Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems · 2024
In engineering systems, the interaction among risk factors is easy to make the negative impact caused by independent factors propagate throughout the overall system. This propagation can result in chain failures and compromise the stability of engineering systems. Therefore, this paper develops a risk assessment model for complex systems to deal with risk propagation. Firstly, a framework of risk factors in complex systems is established based on a comprehensive review of existing literature. Subsequently, an improved DEMATEL – TAISM method based on the cloud model is integrated to develop a hierarchical network analysis model. This model offers evaluation metrics such as factor cause degree, integrated importance values, hierarchical centrality, and critical transmission paths according to complex network theory. To validate the model, we apply it to a practical case study, allowing us to determine the causative attributes of each risk factor, identify key factors, and outline critical risk pathways. The results reveal multiple linkages among risk factors within complex engineering systems, demonstrating the model's applicability and effectiveness. These findings assist engineering managers in developing targeted risk prevention strategies, enhancing risk management efficiency, and contribute to the understanding of dynamic risk propagation processes.