A New Approach to Assessing the Accuracy of Forecasting of Emergencies with Environmental Consequences Based on the Theory of Fuzzy Logic
Eduard S. Tshovrebov, Vladimir B. Moshkov, Irina Yu. Oltyan, F.K. Niyazgulov · Nature Environment and Pollution Technology · 2024
Prevention of the occurrence and development of emergencies of a natural and man-made nature is one of the basic fundamental foundations of ensuring the national security of any state. The most important mechanism for preventing emergencies is an effective system of monitoring and forecasting emergencies established at the state level. In the process of functioning such a system, one of the main urgent problems requiring constant attention, continuous research, system analysis, and the search for solutions by scientific methods and methods is to increase the reliability of emergency forecasts. In this format, special attention is currently being paid worldwide to a comprehensive assessment of the adverse consequences of emergency situations, primarily related to the safety of the population, environmental conservation, and environmental safety. From the standpoint of solving this significant scientific and practical problem, the purpose of this work was to develop and justify a more advanced method for calculating the feasibility of forecasts of emergencies with environmental consequences as a tool for a reasonable detailed assessment of the quality, optimality of emergency forecasting processes and the reliability of the forecasts themselves.