A Taxonomy for Quantification of Norwegian Probability Phrases
Bjørn Sætrevik, Sebastian B. Bjørkheim · 2024
To communicate effectively about risk and uncertainty we need to understand how phrases that describe the probability of an event are understood. Phrases may refer to higher or lower probabilities, they may communicate a precise or a rough estimate, and there may be more or less agreement on the interpretation of the phrase. Previous research has provided taxonomies for how phrases refer to different ranges of quantified probabilities. Our online survey (N = 537) showed that 22 Norwegian probability phrases were interpreted to refer to roughly the same probabilities as their English counterparts. In accordance with preregistered hypotheses, the phrases that were expected to express higher probabilities were assigned higher point-estimate of interpretation (H1). The phrases that were expected to be less precise were assigned wider ranges of possible interpretation (H2). In addition to presenting the phrases alone, our study also presented the phrases as part of positive or negative clinical framing. This manipulation led to medium sized effects that phrases were assigned lower probabilities both when they were used in positive (H3a) and in negative frames (H3b). The current study suggests a taxonomy for how the probability of an event is expressed in Norwegian. This may be relevant for high-stakes settings where it is important to communicate effectively and accurately about risk.