Different methods elicit different belief distributions.
Beidi Hu, Joseph P. Simmons · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · 2024
= 14,553), we find that Distribution Builder elicits more accurate belief distributions than Sliders, except when true distributions are right-skewed, for which the results are mixed. This result holds when we assess accuracy (a) relative to a normative benchmark and (b) relative to participants' own beliefs. Our evidence suggests that participants approach these two methods differently: Sliders users are more likely to start with the lowest bins in the interface, which in turn leads them to put excessive mass in those bins. Our research sheds light on the process by which people construct belief distributions while offering a practical recommendation for future research: All else equal, Distribution Builder yields more accurate belief distributions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).