A Large Reservoir Computing Forecasting Method Based on Randomized Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Omid Orang, Fabricio Javier Erazo-Costa, Petrônio Cândido de Lima e Silva, Guilherme A. Barreto, Frederico Gadelha Guimarães · 2024
This paper introduces a novel forecastings technique based on randomized fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), called LRHFCM (or large reservoir of randomized high-order FCM) for predicting univariate time series. LR-HFCM is a hybrid method combining fuzzy time series (FTS), FCMs, and reservoir computing. It is a type of echo state network (ESN) consisting of the input layer, intermediate (or large reservoir) layer, and output layer, where LASSO regression is applied to train the output layer. The novelty of this approach is that the internal layer includes a very large reservoir, considering different combinations from the sets of concepts and order using a certain number of sub-reservoirs to capture different dynamics of input time series. It is important to highlight that the weights within each sub-reservoir are chosen randomly and remain constant throughout the training process. The validity of the LR-HFCM approach is evaluated across 15 different time series datasets. The results highlight the outperformance of the LR-HFCM technique in comparison to various baseline models.