Artificial intelligence based Monte Carlo model for epidemic forecasting for societal aspect
M. D. Vijayakumar, Yana Batla, Mukesh Soni, Mohan Raparthi, Aws Zuhair Sameen, Sheshang Degadwala · 2024
After the domestic new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic has stabilized, the imported people and goods carrying the virus may lead to a slight rebound in the domestic epidemic. Using this model, the second epidemic situation in a city was simulated. The impact of the epidemic&s;s spatial spread and quantitative growth was analyzed using the closure and control measures at different spatial scales (community closure and control, district and county closure and control). The study results show that the first 3 to 5 days after the appearance of an infected person is the best time for containment and control. The effects of the two modes are similar, so they are suitable for dealing with the single-point burst mode. Combined with the analysis results, suggestions are made for formulating closure and control measures after the epidemic rebounds.