Viability Modeling for Decision Support with Limited Data: A Lizard Case Study
Ashley B. C. Goode, Nathan L. Allan, Conor P. McGowan · Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management · 2024
Abstract The Plateau Spot-Tailed Earless Lizard Holbrookia lacerata is a species of ground lizard in central Texas, USA, that is under review for listing as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Despite this status, there is a lack of development of predictive models of population dynamics or viability. Herein, we used the limited available data and published demographic rates in a population viability analysis model to predict the future status of this lizard species under parametric and ecological uncertainty and temporal variability. Even in cases where data are sparse and life history information is limited, viability models can help clarify the consequences of management choices given the uncertainty. Our model predicted that, on average, populations of H. lacerata will decline in the future. Quasi-extinction probability was low 20 y into the future, but up to 0.60 by 50 y. Extinction risk was highly dependent on the road mortality effect and the proportion of the population exposed to roadways, both of which are currently uncertain quantities. Despite these unknowns, our model enables managers to consider the future abundance and extinction risk for H. lacerata and make decisions about management to project population viability and it also identifies key uncertainties for future research and monitoring.