Impact Analysis of Social Events on Industries through Narrative Causal Search
Ryotaro Kobayashi, Yuri Murayama, Kiyoshi Izumi · 2023
This study focuses on discovering the ripple effects on firms of significant external events such as pandemics, resource price spikes, and natural disasters. We construct a system that presents a chain of other economic events derived from one event by extracting descriptions of causal relationships from a large amount of text data. The objective of this study is to construct a causal chain presentation system that takes into account the diversity of outputs to discover broader economic ripple effects. To accomplish this goal, we develop a new algorithm that uses Maximal Marginal Relevance to represent causal chains. Experiments using Japanese financial statement summaries confirm that this approach produces a greater variety of outputs without sacrificing accuracy. This innovative approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of how external events impact firms and their financial performance.