A Data-driven Method for Dynamic Emergency Decisionmaking in Public Emergencies
Liu Liu · Journal of Management and Humanity Research · 2023
The evolution of a public emergency situation is often dynamic, random and multi-stage, requiring multiple decisions and dynamic updates to the emergency response plan according to the event situation until the best outcome is achieved.This research proposes a data-driven approach to dynamic emergency decision-making for public emergencies based on lens model and prospect theory, which in details are: 1)using lens model foe reference, the state in the next stage is predicted through the proximal information in current stage; 2) considering the uncertainty of the public emergencies decision-making environment, using the fuzzy number to describe the information cues obtained by the decision-maker; 3) to simulate the real decision-maker better, the method is proposed in the framework of prospect theory.Based on the above ideas, two key parameters are invented for the dynamic emergencies decision-making method: predict prospect value and predict performance.At last, a case in public emergencies is applied to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.