Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation
Professor Gary S. Collins, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Michael Maia Schlüssel, Lucinda Archer, Ben Van Calster, Frank E. Harrell, Glen Philip Martin, Karel G. M. Moons, Maarten van Smeden, Matthew Sperrin, Garrett Scott Bullock, Richard D Riley · BMJ · 2024
Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.