A Bayesian analysis of some forms of inductive reasoning
Evan Heit · 2000
Abstract One of our most important cognitive goals is prediction (Billman and Heit, 1988; Anderson, 1990, 1991; Heit, 1992; Ross and Murphy, 1996), and category-level information enables a rich set of predictions. For example, you might not be able to predict much about Peter until you are told that Peter is a goldfish, in which case you could predict that he will swim and he will eat fish food. Prediction is a basic element of a wide range of everyday tasks from problem solving to social interaction to motor control. This chapter, however, will-focus on a narrower range of prediction phenomena, concerning how people evaluate inductive ‘syllogisms’ or arguments such as the following example: