Computing the probability density function of a random compartmental model to describe the dynamics of HIV. Application to real-world data*
C. Burgos, J.‐C. Cortés, Carla M. A. Pinto, Rafael Jacinto Villanueva · 2023
In this contribution, we incorporate randomness into a previous deterministic fractional HIV model to study the propagation of uncertainty with aim of better understanding the disease dynamic. To this end, we use the Random Variable Transformation Technique to compute the first probability density function of the solution stochastic process of the randomized fractional HIV model. Then, we assign judicious parametric probability distributions for some model parameters and we then find out the best values to describe the real data obtained from the Hospital Pedro Hispano in Portugal. These preliminary results may be useful to better understand the dynamics of HIV and provide valuable information for public health policymakers.