Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases on the example of Astana city
A. I. Takuadina, N. P. Pazylkhan, K. T. Iskakov · Bulletin of the National Engineering Academy of the Republic of Kazakhstan · 2022
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogens («microbes»), including viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites, and are ranked by the World Health Organization as the second leading cause of death worldwide. These infections can cause temporary discomfort, severe tissue damage, or even death. Timely accumulation of complex information about the disease with the introduction of computer data processing into the system of the medical service will increase the level of information support for epidemiological surveillance. The paper considers the concepts and existing mathematical models of the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19, based on SIR-type models. Variety of models of this type are most suitable for predicting, since the disease has a sufficiently long incubation period and the presence of asymptomatic carriers. A mathematical description of the SEIR model with thirteen variables is given.