Research on early warning system of provincial energy and power security based on extension cloud
Shu Lan Xia, Yuan Zhang, Fan Yang, Saite Yang · 2023
Under the background of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" and the comprehensive marketization of gas-fired power units, provincial energy and power security is facing a new situation. The corresponding supporting mechanisms and rules are immature, resulting in a large number of risk factors. Therefore, in order to ensure the security of provincial energy and power, the research and monitoring of risk factors are essential. This paper starts from the upstream, midstream and downstream links of the energy and power industry chain and analyzes the risk factors of energy and power security in terms of energy supply, energy utilization, unit operation, environmental impact, power system operation, and electricity market. Then, according to different risk sources, a dynamic risk early warning system suitable for provincial energy and power security is designed to monitor the security risks of the entire energy and power supply chain. In addition, combined with matter-element extension theory and cloud model, an extension cloud model suitable for energy and power security risk early warning is designed, from which the risk early warning level of provincial energy and power security can be obtained. Finally, the effectiveness of the above method for reflecting the risk situation of provincial energy and power security is demonstrated by arithmetic examples.