Some Powerful Methods Based on Bayes
Douglas W. Hubbard, Richard Seiersen · 2023
There are some slightly more elaborate derivatives of Bayes's rule that should come up frequently in cybersecurity. The beta distribution is useful when IT security managers are trying to estimate a population proportion. A population proportion is just the share of a population that falls in some subset. AllClear ID, a leading firm in customer-facing breach response in the cybersecurity ecosystem, uses a beta distribution to estimate cybersecurity risks using industry breach data. The log odds ratio method provides a way for an expert to estimate the effects of each condition separately and then add them up to get the probability based on all the conditions. The authors have produced several lens models to estimate cybersecurity risks in multiple organizations. The product of the chance of being wrong and the cost of being wrong is called the expected opportunity loss.