Mixture Distribution for Modeling Turkey Covid-19 Case
Hendri Fahrizal, Arisman Adnan, Rado Yendra · International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology · 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic hit the world in early 2020 and caused many deaths in various countries, one of which was Turkey. In March 2020, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed by the Turkish Ministry of Health. In May 2021, the rise of cases continued to occur until it reached 5.2 million cases with a death toll of 47,271 people. In this research, a model for Turkey’s COVID-19 positive cases had built using a mixed distribution, namely log-normal, gamma and Weibull. Parameter estimation for each distribution was carried out using the maximum likelihood method. Then by using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) tests, it was found that the 3-component gamma distribution is the best distribution to describe the pattern of spikes in positive cases of COVID-19 in Turkey.