The Voice of Monetary Policy
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Tho Pham, Talavera, Oleksandr; id_orcid 0000-0002-4799-778X · University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) · 2023
We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Fed’s actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Fed chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy messages are communicated can move the financial market. Our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.