Inverse Conversion of Transition Matrices Method for Polygeneration Microgrid Dynamic Electricity Cost Prediction
Volodymyr Osypenko, Viktor Kaplun · 2022 IEEE 17th International Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies (CSIT) · 2022
This article is devoted to the application of the inverse transformation (deployment) method of the matrix of empirical transition probabilities to detailed solutions for predicting the energy states of power generating components of a combined power supply system in local facilities with renewable energy sources. It is known that inverse problems are so-called incorrect problems. The one-level and two-level algorithms of the method of inverse transformation of the matrix of empirical probabilities of transitions to detailed solutions are considered. Through modeling, it is shown the forecasting of the level of electricity generation given by the load profile by several sources (traditional and renewable) at the specified forecasting interval to form the influence of the control system or the user himself on the electricity consumption mode of the local object. In addition, a system of criteria is considered, which is based on a conditional dynamic tariff and the ratio of installed capacities of renewable sources of electricity, to ensure the balance of the microgrid system with polygeneration.