Prediction Number of Passenger Ships from Port X to the Kepulauan Seribu Using SARIMA
Clarabelle Clarabelle, Jullend Gatc · 2022
Indonesia is the world’s biggest archipelago country. Kepulauan Seribu is a famous marine tourist destination. Tourists can use passenger ship in Port X as their sea transport. The number of tourists visiting the thousand islands can’t be confirmed as it is always fluctuating. The lack of information causes overload and inadequate safety equipment. Therefore, this research wants to predict the number of passengers aboard ship. The researcher determines a good initial SARIMA model based on RMSE value. This can be seen from the lags in the ACF and PACF plots to determine the AR and MA parameters. Seasonal parameters can be identified through the ACF plot, seen from the significant first lag. The prediction uses SARIMA method as it is [effective] for short-term predictions containing seasonal elements. The model used is model (3,0,1) (1,0,1)7 with RMSE value of 645,296. This model is used to predict 90 days ahead of the number of passengers abroad. This research results in a dashboard of total ship passengers and its prediction.