Neural networks for cost estimating in project management
Gregor Sandhaus · 1998
This thesis considers the application of neural networks in cost estimating in project management and whether they lead to more accurate estimates. It strikes two areas of research, namely neural networks and project management; an introductory chapter on both subjects is included. The statistical problem of parametric cost estimating is described and an explanation of the general principles is given. The Multi-Layer Perceptron with the Backpropagation learning algorithm is determined to be the most appropriate network and a selection of available software programs is reviewed. A Multi-Layer Perceptron neural model is used to determine one of the most important cost estimating relationships of the PRICE model. A comparison of the outputs of the neural network and the PRICE model shows that the Backpropagation algorithm is able to find the underlying estimating relationships used by PRJCE. To investigate whether other underlying functions can be found with artificial intelligence methods, other input parameters are selected and the costs generated by the PRICE model and by the neural network are compared with each other. Further experiments were undertaken in order to improve the performance of the neural network. The neural networks were applied to real data. and their output compared with the PRICE model. The processes of achieving better results are analogous to those used for the artificial data. A neural network was created which performs better than the PRICE model in terms of the accuracy of the estimates produced. The results are discussed and the collection of significant and accurate information and then deciding on which type of network is the best network to be used are identified as the major problems in the application of artificial intelligence for cost estimation in project management. The limitations and restrictions of the implementation of neural networks are examined and the scope and topics of further research are suggested.