Network Security Situation Prediction Model Based on Security Situation Factors
Wei Hu, Jianyi Liu, Han Wen Guo, Jing Li, Xinjian Zhao, Mingyang Zhang · 2021
The existing network security situation prediction (NSSP) methods are static prediction, and do not consider the impact of dynamic changes of security situation factors on the future NSS, which caused the prediction inaccurate. This paper proposes a NSSP model based on the prediction of security situation factors. This model comprehensively considers the change of factors of the security situation and ignores the factors of the situation that do not change in the short term, such as topology and service information. It mainly analyzes the dynamic changes of attack information, vulnerability information and defensive measures, and forecasts the situation from both the host and network levels. The method of prediction in this paper is verified by experiments, which can improve the prediction accuracy and is more in line with the attack scenario.