When Will the Quantum Crypto Break Happen?
Roger A. Grimes · 2019
This chapter covers the main factors involved in determining when the quantum crypto break is happen, when it might likely happen, and how it is likely play out. It gives an answer so many other quantum computing experts want to avoid: exactly when is the quantum crypto break happen? There are four possible broad time periods when the quantum crypto break is going to happen: it is already happened, but we do not know about it; it will happen in the next few years; it will not happen in the next few years, but eventually will; or it will never happen. If history can be used as a guide, then the most likely breakout scenario will be one where the nation-states will be the first entities to use large-scale quantum computing. Governments might even create laws that prevent quantum computing manufacturers from allowing their computers to be used to crack traditional public key crypto.