Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: A practical guide
Marc H. Meyer, NRC, NM (United States) Los Alamos National Lab., Julian Booker · 1990
In this book we describe how to elicit and analyze expert judgment. Expert judgment is defined here to include both the experts' answers to technical questions and their mental processes in reaching an answer. It refers specifically to data that are obtained in a deliberate, structured manner that makes use of the body of research on human cognition and communication. Our aim is to provide a guide for lay persons in expert judgment. These persons may be from physical and engineering sciences, mathematics and statistics, business, or the military. We provide background on the uses of expert judgment and on the processes by which humans solve problems, including those that lead to bias. Detailed guidance is offered on how to elicit expert judgment ranging from selecting the questions to be posed of the experts to selecting and motivating the experts to setting up for and conducting the elicitation. Analysis procedures are introduced and guidance is given on how to understand the data base structure, detect bias and correlation, form models, and aggregate the expert judgments.