Future Prediction of Dangerousness and Violent Behavior: Psychological Indicators and Considerations for Conducting an Assessment of Potential Threat*
Joseph A. Davis · 2001
Introduction .................................................................................................. 262 Violence Prediction and Threat Assessment............................................... 263 Purpose of Prediction of Violence and Dangerousness.................... 264 Formula for Scientific Prediction of Future Violence ...................... 264 Clinical Prediction of Violence and Dangerousness ......................... 265 Statistical Predictive Models of Dangerousness and Violent Behavior.................................................................................. 266 Examining Violent Behavior ........................................................................ 267 Formula for the Prediction of Future Violence and Dangerousness ........ 269 Threshold of Violence and Violence Potential .................................. 269 Threat Assessment and Areas of Inquiry........................................... 270 Threshold of Behavior and Violence........................................................... 271 Proposed Traits of Violent Offenders.......................................................... 271 An Exceptional Case Study Research on Violent Offenders...................... 272 Conducting a Threat Assessment Evaluation ............................................. 273 Juvenile Predictors of Violent Behavior ...................................................... 275 Conclusion..................................................................................................... 277 Bibliography .................................................................................................. 278 About the Contributing Authors ................................................................. 280 No criminal act causes more concern to society than crimes that seriously injure or kill its citizens while at home or at work, and especially its children while at school or at play. Consequently, many people regard offenders who carry out these violent crimes with fear, believing involuntary commitment to a maximum security forensic mental health setting for an undetermined length of time (often longer than their original sentences), or their death, to be the only choice as an absolute precaution against future acts of violence. The issue of future dangerousness has led many threat assessment experts, as well as those in the judicial and law enforcement field, to debate heavily over the ability of the available clinical adult and juvenile population to predict the probability of future violent behavior or “dangerousness” of an offender.