[Development and validation of a prediction model for treatment failure in peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis patients: a multicenter study].
Lingfei Meng, Xueyan Zhu, Liming Yang, Xiu-Xin Li, Siyu Cheng, Shizheng Guo, Xiaohua Zhuang, H Zou, Wenpeng Cui · PubMed · 2022
OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of treatment failure in patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) in 3 dialysis centers in Jilin Province who developed PDAP between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2019. The data collected from the Second Hospital of Jilin University and Second Division of First Hospital of Jilin University) were used as the training dataset and those from Jilin Central Hospital as the validation dataset. We developed a nomogram for predicting treatment failure using a logistic regression model with backward elimination. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by analyzing the C-statistic and the calibration plots. We also plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the nomogram. RESULTS: : 0.743-0.908) in the validation dataset. The nomogram also performed well in calibration in both the training and validation datasets. CONCLUSION: The established nomogram has a good accuracy in estimating the risk of treatment failure in PDAP patients.