Prediction of Ecotourism Population Based on Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA Mixed Model
Guojun He, Lan Ningning · 2021 International Conference on Intelligent Computing, Automation and Systems (ICICAS) · 2021
While material and spiritual wealth is greatly en-riched, a series of existential crises such as resource, environmental and ecological problems have awakened human environmental awareness, and the green movement and green consumption have swept the world. Thus, ecotourism has also become a hot topic in academia and industry, attracting the attention of many scholars. In this paper, we will propose a hybrid model based on Exponential smoothing and ARIMA, and use the ARIMA model with the proposed model to predict the number of tourists and the total amount of tourism consumption in Guangxi. Finally, the performance of each model will be evaluated using regression predictors such as ME, RSME, and MAE. Through the results of this paper, we will make our suggestions for the future development of eco-tourism in Guangxi and further promote the healthy development of eco-tourism in Guangxi.