Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures
Allison Codi, Damon Luk, David M. Braun, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, Eva Chen, de C`esaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey, Paolo Bocchini, McAndrew, Thomas · PubMed · 2022
Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.