Efficiency of a Stochastic Prediction
M. Ogawara · Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics · 1955
An idea of efficiency of a p rediction is introduced that is defined on the conception of risk function in which the effect of a prediction to the human behaviour or the social activity and the protection cost are considered. How to use the stochastic prediction introduced by the author is explained by the risk function and, from a view point of the efficiency, it is shown that the stochastic prediction is the most reasonable one. The calculation method of efficiency is explained by two examples.